Queensland property prices tumbled after boom but now every region is rising again

The real estate rollercoaster on the Sunshine and Gold coasts is on the way up again, with house prices rising by the equivalent of $1,000 a week over the past three months, according to research. 

Key points:

• Queensland property prices have been rising since February after falling sharply last year
• The Sunshine and Gold coasts recorded the highest property price increases for regional Queensland
• Real estate experts say further rates rises could have an impact on those increasing prices, if owners are forced into “distress”

Although the two coastal centres experienced the biggest property hikes in regional Queensland, they were not alone, with every region in the state analysed by real estate data firm CoreLogic showing prices have been on the rise since February.

From tumbling to turnaround

The real rollercoaster started when prices on the Sunshine and Gold coasts skyrocketed from March 2020 to their peak in May last year – with the average price of houses in both regions jumping by an enormous 52 per cent. 

But then came a marked downturn, when housing prices began to tumble as the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates for the first time in a decade.

By April this year, they had fallen by 12 per cent on the Sunshine Coast, which includes Noosa, and by 7.3 per cent on the Gold Coast – the biggest percentage downturn in property prices since at least 2013.

And with lower prices came fewer sales.

The number of homes sold on the Sunshine Coast fell by 29.9 per cent in the past 12 months, and by 28 per cent on the Gold Coast.

But while the annual data seems to paint a dire image, it is not the whole story.

Prices have begun to slowly bounce back, with the two coastal centres rising by more than 2 per cent in the past three months.

Home price rises ‘extraordinary’

CoreLogic head of data Tim Lawless said this new rise in house prices was “extraordinary”.

“If you think about a typical wage being maybe $60,000 to $80,000 — arguably, three or four months of growth is going to be equal to someone’s annual income,” he said.

“So it’s quite extraordinary to see housing prices rising as quickly, albeit against this backdrop of quite a sharp drop. 

“That’s a pretty rapid return to growth.”

Vendors may be reluctant to sell

Mr Lawless said would-be sellers were less willing to put their home on the market, given the uncertainty.

But those looking to buy may not have the same luxury.

“There probably hasn’t been a great deal of distress despite interest rates rising so quickly, at least there’s no evidence of that,” he said.

“But I think what we’re now seeing is just the sheer under-supply and sense of urgency coming back into the market, prompting more people to get into a purchasing situation.”

What about future rate rises?

Mr Lawless warned the new “exuberance” in the market could begin to calm if the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to lift interest rates.

“Higher interest rates would probably dispel some of these strong gains, which I would currently describe as probably unsustainable, if we saw another one or two rate hikes,” he said.

The rise in house prices across Queensland was reflected across the nation, with property rising in every capital city through May.

“I think safely over the past three months, clearly a trend towards a more positive trend in housing prices has been established,” Mr Lawless said.

“In fact, it’s gathering momentum, if anything.”