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September 17, 2024 by ash 0 Comments

Qld’s next boom region: Investors

There are five Queensland regions that have been identified as “stand-out” investment hotspots and labelled as the next places to buy “before the boom”.

According to InvestorKit’s Overvalued or Undervalued research, the top affordable locations will boom over the next 12 months across capital cities and regional areas.

According to InvestorKit founder Arjun Paliwal, over 80 percent of overvalued cities and regions experienced a housing price decline last year. Over 90 percent of undervalued cities and regions experienced average growth of more than 7 percent.

While the Australian housing market has certainly been tough, our data suggests there are still opportunities to find a growth investment at an affordable price if you look for undervalued markets with solid fundamentals.”

In Queensland, InvestorKit recommends Bundaberg, Townsville, Rockhampton, Warwick and Gatton for investors.

“The local economies of these regions are either strong or strengthening,” Mr Paliwal said.

Their unemployment rates are at their lowest level since over a decade ago

There is a rapid increase in GRPs (gross regional products) and population growth rates in all of them are higher than the last five years.”

The high demand in each of the regions identified contributed to limited supply, and Mr Paliwal added that each town had great growth prospects in addition to being affordable. All five regions have low inventory levels, under three months of stock, indicating high market pressure.

In comparison with pre-Covid times, there is a decline in available stock on the market.”

According to the LGA, Bundaberg is the most expensive; Townsville is the most expensive; Rockhampton is the most expensive.

The median house values at a suburb level in Warwick and Roma were $395,000 and $430,000, respectively.

Compared to Melbourne, the median house price in Brisbane LGA is now $1.1 million.

In Queensland, tight rental markets have created more demand for rentals, according to Mr. Paliwal.

According to REIQ’s Residential Vacancy Report for March 2024, vacancy rates in Queensland were as low as 0%, with rental availability remaining dangerously low across most of the state.

RELATED: QLD vacancy rate “dangerously low”

There is a rapid increase in rents in these regions, according to Mr Paliwal.

The crisis-level vacancy rates in four out of five regions are less than one percent, while the vacancy rate in the fifth region (Gatton) is below the two percent high-pressure benchmark.

We expect the fast-growing rental prices, coupled with the affordable housing prices and high yields, to drive more renters to buy and attract more investors, driving housing values upward.

Recent research by Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) found that close to one million households in Queensland were under financial stress due to the housing crisis and rising costs of living.

More than 320,000 homeowners (more than 45%) in the state were in mortgage stress, spending more than 37 percent of their income on home loan repayments, while nearly 490,000 tenants — 72 percent — were in rental stress, spending an average of 36 percent of their monthly income on rent.

According to Finder, a Queensland school leaver would need to save for 21 years to afford a house deposit.

Graham Cooke, Finder’s head of consumer research, said: “The days when one income earner and a stay-at-home parent could raise a family at home are long gone.”

“Wage growth simply isn’t keeping up with skyrocketing property prices for most people.

“The bank of Mum and Dad makes it easier for some to enter the real estate market, but not all will be able to do so.

According to Paliwal, Queensland remains affordable when compared to other states on the east coast, despite the dire results of both research projects.

The southeast Queensland (SEQ) cities of Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Sunshine Coast are among the most expensive markets in the country.

It is primarily due to incoming migrants from the two major capital cities and overseas that they are so hot.

Prices are approaching the affordability ceiling, which will slow down house value growth.”

Meanwhile, he noted that other parts of the state are more affordable.

According to him, 23 of the 26 SA3 regions outside of SEQ have a median house price under $650,000, while 19 have a median house price under $500,000.

There is much room for improvement in these regions since their last 10-year growth is much lower than the long-term average.

Many of them are very hot due to the combination of affordability, lifestyle, and thriving local economies, so hot that many buyers fear missing out on a great deal.

According to Mr Paliwal, Queensland’s population and economy are among the fastest growing across all states, as well as its property market.

The markets in SEQ and the rest of the state, however, are very different.

August 21, 2024 by ash 0 Comments

Australia’s ‘super investors’: ten properties and counting

In 2020, Bhavi Desai purchased her first piece of real estate. Since then, she has acquired nine more properties, accumulating a portfolio of $10 million.

She has secured a 15 per cent rental yield on her highest cash-flow property to house participants in the fast-growing National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS).

“I should be able to reach 25 [properties] without too much stress … after that, I will have to work my magic to keep going,” the Sydneysider said.

AFR Weekend’s analysis of annual Tax Office data shows the 46-year-old investment lending manager is among 20,000 so-called “super investors” who own six or more properties. In 2021-22, hardcore property speculators made an average rental profit of $15,900.

Despite owning just 1% of the 2.27 million rental properties, super investors bought 4.6% of all investment properties with 151,086 properties between them.

Ten percent of investors had at least three properties, and collectively, they held one quarter of all rentals.

With her growing confidence in her investing abilities, Ms Desai began purchasing non-standard assets, including the property that will house NDIS participants next month.

Cash flow was the main reason for buying this NDIS property. Approximately 15% of the rental income is generated there. This is one of the advantages of owning a NDIS [property].

In addition to holding high-growth, low-yield properties, Ms Desai also purchased lower-growth assets with healthy cash flows.

Investors were increasingly likely to be positively geared as they purchased more assets, according to ATO data. Approximately two-thirds of super investors were cash-flow positive in 2021-22, meaning their rental income exceeded various expenses, including interest and strata fees.

However, after 13 interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia since May 2022, Ms Desai said her portfolio is now negatively geared.

Ms Desai’s “biggest hit” came in 2023 when her fixed terms expired and a 2.5 percent interest rate went straight to 6.5 percent.

While negotiating Labor’s housing shared equity scheme, the Albanese government has said it will not change negative gearing.

In spite of owning ten properties, Ms Desai lives in a rental apartment with her husband. Originally, the couple planned to buy a property for themselves to live in, but in 2020 they switched their focus to investing.

“I wouldn’t describe it as easy. Her advice was to increase your income constantly to be able to support [more borrowing].

Rental property expenses recorded by the ATO in 2021-22 totaled $43.8 billion, with loan interest ($15.8 billion), capital works deductions ($4.3 billion), and council rates ($3.9 billion) being the largest.

She said although her investment journey had been fairly smooth, there had been a few obstacles along the way, such as issues with valuations preventing her from securing financing.

The portfolio’s $10 million value is equivalent to about 50% of her debt, so Ms Desai doesn’t worry about something going wrong.

As long as they can, she and her husband will continue to invest.

There is a lot of pressure on my son right now. As soon as you turn 18, I will give you a mortgage as a birthday gift. I’ll pay your 20% deposit, but you must earn enough to cover your mortgage.”

August 8, 2024 by ash 0 Comments

A growing number of southerners are flocking to regional Queensland’s beachside towns in search of the next real estate hotspot

  • Despite rising house prices in the Wide Bay region over 80 percent since 2020, experts say they’re still comparatively affordable.
  • Regional house prices and rental markets are under pressure due to migration.
  • Where do we go from here? People are looking for “the next Sunshine Coast” and discovering “hidden gems” like Bargara, Moore Park Beach, and Burnett Heads.

Property prices in a sleepy beachside town have soared by more than 80 percent in four years, but an analyst says it’s still “extraordinarily cheap” compared to those in capital cities.

Moore Park Beach in Bundaberg is five hours north of Brisbane, nestled between cane fields and the ocean.

Following a lifestyle change last year, Ms King, 28, and her husband are among the area’s newest residents.

Their mortgage in Brisbane was swapped for an “oasis” complete with kookaburras and a private beach.

“We found this beautiful little town at Moore Park Beach, just 20 minutes from Bundaberg, and found this beautiful house,” she said.

Price comparison

According to PropTrack data, regional Queensland is experiencing the strongest market since the pandemic onset, with home prices surging by 66.5 percent since 2020.

Wide Bay between Gympie and Bundaberg topped the list with values soaring by 80.5 percent.

More than 70 percent of house values rose in Ipswich, Logan-Beaudesert, and the Gold Coast as well.

The median house price in Bundaberg is $522,607, Gympie is $629,775 and Maryborough is $484,153, according to Corelogic.

There is a median price of $1,461,581 in Noosa, and a median price of $817,564 in Greater Brisbane.

As a result of the pandemic, coastal areas have experienced extraordinary growth, according to CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless.

There has been an increase of 82.5% in home values at Moore Park Beach – one of the more affordable coastal suburbs in the Wide Bay region.

In spite of the increase, Mr Lawless said coastal homes in the region were still affordable.

The median or house value at Moore Park Beach or Bargara or Innes Park is still well below $750,000, he said.

“Compare that to a coastal market around south-east Queensland and you’ll see that it’s extremely inexpensive.”

Increasing prices

Migration was a major factor putting pressure on the regional property market, as well as the rental market, although it had slowed in the wake of the pandemic.

Mr Lawless said Queensland is seeing a very strong influx of migrants from interstate as well as overseas.

Despite the fact that regional Queensland is mostly driven by interstate migration, overall population growth is still very strong in the region.”

According to him, there is not enough housing supply to meet demand.

According to Mr Lawless, the number of new homes being built is insufficient to accommodate the number of people moving to the state.

“This means we are seeing … constraints both in the purchase of homes, as well as in the rental of homes, since rental rates are also rising consistently and rapidly.”

A Bundaberg real estate agent said the local market was attracting buyers who had sold and made profits elsewhere, and were seeking a beachside lifestyle at a lower cost.

He said they were looking for the next Sunshine Coast.

The little hidden gems of Bargara, Moore Park Beach and Burnett Heads are starting to gain popularity.”

A traditional characteristic of the region is its “slow and steady” market pace, which appears to be returning after the pandemic boom.

Hotspot of the future on the coast

The Sunshine Coast’s James Jenkinson has purchased land at Bundaberg’s Innes Park and plans to build a house and relocate with his family.

Coastal lifestyle and planned infrastructure projects, including the new $1.2 billion Bundaberg Hospital, attracted the owner of a pipeline plumbing construction company.

In the early 1990s, he compared Bundaberg to areas along the Sunshine Coast.

Initially, we intend to move to a rental and then start building.

The only negative I can mention is finding rentals in Bargara can be a little challenging.”

Beaches instead of Brisbane

They built their first home in Mango Hill before the pandemic and sold it last year to move to Moore Park Beach.

The experience of living here has been absolutely amazing, she said.

My backyard does not normally have turtles laying eggs, but I saw them laying eggs last December.

Through a “security swap”, Ms King said they were able to transfer their mortgage with their lender.

Mortgagees can keep their existing loan structure by changing the property used as collateral.

Our mortgage was not changed, but since the property we bought in Moore Park Beach was at a lower value than what we sold in Mango Hill, we were able to keep the same mortgage,” she said.

Despite the fact that we are not better off financially, we are in a better physical, mental, and emotional place.”

March 1, 2024 by ash 0 Comments

Wide Bay sees the greatest growth in property prices in Australia due to its beaches and hot weather

  • As population growth and a lack of homes push up prices in regional Queensland, property values are surging. 
  • Locals say Wide Bay’s beaches, hot weather, and “bang for your buck” properties are particularly attractive. 
  • Property analysts predict the trend will continue.

One coastal region in Queensland is experiencing the most rapid growth in property prices.

In the past five years, property prices in Wide Bay, which includes Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, and Maryborough, have risen between 65-75 percent.

Wide Bay has an “incredibly exciting set of ingredients,” said property analyst Simon Pressley.

A big draw for someone looking to relocate from a big, congested city, such as Sydney or Melbourne, is the cost of housing combined with the lifestyle.

I would argue that it has the best weather in the country.

It’s an economic story, a lifestyle story, and a shortage of housing supply story.”

How does the drawcard work?

According to locals, the boom is due to the region’s beaches, good weather, and large backyards.

After putting two houses on the market in recent years, Bundaberg builder Jake Chappel has experienced growth at work and in his personal life.

It was nice to be on the selling side, he said.

“I feel sorry for the young people who are buying now. But I do not believe [prices] will go down any time soon.

It was probably cheap land and cheap properties at the beginning.

“The climate is usually good. It’s a bit hot right now, but it’s usually pretty comfortable and liveable.”.

As compared to the [Gold and Sunshine] coasts and Brisbane, we have great beaches, great people, and reasonable prices.”

  • Beaches, good weather, and big backyards are credited with the boon. (ABC Wide Bay: Johanna Marie)

Growth in the market

Over the past five years, Bundaberg’s property values have increased nearly 75 percent to a median value of nearly $480,000, according to CoreLogic’s report.

A jump of more than 67 per cent had occurred at Hervey Bay to over $615,000, while a jump of almost 66 per cent had occurred at Maryborough to almost $395,000.

With a median value of more than $965,000, the Sunshine Coast has overtaken the Gold Coast region for the highest median value in regional Queensland.

Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic, attributed the high prices to Queensland’s strong population growth.

“We’re also seeing an ongoing trend in internal migration rates where more people are looking for regional housing or being driven to the regions due to job growth or affordable housing.”

Mr Lawless, however, said that high property prices were not good news for everybody.

According to him, home owners have built up quite a bit of equity across the market.

On the other hand, affordability is becoming more difficult for those who do not own a home.

“Household incomes haven’t risen near that amount.”

Preparing to pay a premium

The data didn’t surprise veteran Gold Coast real estate agent David Hamilton.

In his work, he has seen those numbers reflected and does not expect the market to slow down anytime soon.

“The big jump was in COVID years. It’s going to keep going up,” he said.

There has been an increase in interstate arrivals cashing in on the Gold Coast market, which he believes is adding to the already tight market.

Byron Bay, Sutherland Shire, or the eastern suburbs of Sydney are no different from us, Mr Hamilton said.

People want to live here and walk to the beach, and they are willing to pay a premium for it.”

January 12, 2024 by ash 0 Comments

Here are some suburbs to watch out for in 2024 in Brisbane

Despite a strong year in 2023, Brisbane’s property market isn’t slowing down, and these suburbs could see major growth next year.

According to CoreLogic, Brisbane’s median dwelling price went up 11.9% from 1 December to 1 December. On average, houses were going for $870,000, now only about 7.5% below Melbourne.

Key points

  • Brisbane’s prestige suburbs are expected to keep growing, where the charm and lifestyle create a demand that never goes away.
  • The fast-growing Moreton Bay LGA might be a good place to look for a bargain.

Brisbane’s market hasn’t slowed down yet like Australia’s second largest city. Before too long, buying a house in Melbourne will be cheaper than in Brisbane if the current growth rate continues.

One analyst says prices in Brisbane will keep going up in 2024 is Louis Christopher of SQM Research

“Brisbane prices are expected to rise [in 2024]…driven by a recovering Chinese economy with strong demand for base commodities like iron ore,” he says.

Whether it’s mining jobs, the 2032 Olympics or our beaches, Brisbane’s population is set to grow for a long time.

Within a decade, 350,000 people will emigrate to Brisbane, both internally and from abroad, according to consulting firm RSM. Brisbane needs more housing than ever before, said former Deputy Premier Stephen Miles.

A plan is needed to make sure homes are delivered when and where they need to be.

In the 12 months to November, SQM reported the number of Brisbane property listings had fallen 12.6%.

Canberra listings were up 24.4%, Hobart listings were up 22.1%, Melbourne listings were up 4.2%, and Sydney listings were up 3.5%.

Several experts in the real estate industry have helped us pick spots in Brisbane that could be particularly lucrative.

October 10, 2023 by ash 0 Comments

Exactly what is a duplex and what are its advantages?

Imagine buying a duplex on your own land at about half the price of a house. Think we’re joking? Think again.

For a much lower price than two similarly situated detached houses, duplexes often produce strong value growth and healthy rental yields.

Here’s a full explanation of how duplexes compare to other types of property and which one could be a better investment.

How does a duplex work?

In a duplex, two homes are joined by a common wall and either exist on a single land title and are owned and sold together, or they exist on separate land titles and are owned and sold separately.

A duplex’s owners must agree to an insurance policy covering both sides.

It depends on the age and jurisdiction of the duplex whether a body corporate is required.

For more information, contact the relevant authority in your state or territory.

How do duplexes and houses differ?

The difference between a house and a duplex is that houses only have one dwelling, whereas duplexes have two dwellings, each with its own entrances.

Is it possible to own half of a duplex?

If the duplex has been divided into two separate titles, you can only buy one half if they are on the same title.

What are the benefits of buying a duplex?

If you are an investor, buying a duplex means you’ll get two rental incomes from one property. If you’re a regular buyer, buying a duplex has several benefits. Building one means you’ll earn almost as much rental income as you would from two detached houses, while saving thousands on land costs, since a duplex requires a lot less space than two detached houses.

If you are a regular buyer, the main benefit is the price tag, which is often half of what you would pay for a similar detached house in the same location. Those seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle in a premium location, such as retirees and downsizers, will be pleased with this news.

“This means you can either get into a better location for cheaper than buying a house in the same area, or, to put it another way, you can buy a house with your own strata land instead of buying an apartment in a similar area without land,” says Eureka Buyers Agents’ Nicole Marsh.

Marsh gives the example of a client with a $700,000 budget who wants to buy a house in a prestige waterfront suburb like Burleigh Waters.

It’s almost half the price for this client to buy a duplex in this premium suburb for under $400,000.

There are also the following perks:

  • A single adjoining owner rather than a large number of neighbours;
  • As there is only one duplex neighbor to consult, it’s potentially easy to make changes to your own home;
  • Marsh says living next door offers the security benefits of having a close neighbor without living “in each other’s pockets.”
  • Since you own your own land, you don’t have to give away pets;
  • Absence of body corporate fees could boost rental income;
  • Your garden requires little upkeep since you own a half-block (300-400sqm rather than 700+sqm).

The benefit of saving lots of money must be weighed against the reduction in privacy.

The following are potential pitfalls:

  • According to March, duplex configuration is crucial – “I don’t like duplexes with one unit at the back as the back neighbours might walk past your bedroom windows at night” – side-by-side or corner units are better;
  • Consider buying in an area where duplexes are the exception rather than the rule;
  • To maximize value, avoid duplexes with different front facades.

Depending on the location, Momentum Wealth’s Damian Collins also believes duplexes are good investments.

A duplex property in the right location can definitely be a good investment option for the right client.

Traditionally, properties with a higher land component value appreciate faster than properties with a lower land component value. People often compare duplexes to apartments.

There are also some downsides to investing in duplexes, according to Collins.

“If you own only one duplex, you are often restricted from doing external work to the property since it is a strata complex. This limits the ways you can make the property more valuable,” he says.

In order to make a great duplex investment, you need to do thorough research, just as you would with any other property you buy.

July 28, 2023 by ash 0 Comments

The rapid increase in Australian property prices during 2020 and 2021 is well known to anyone who has sold or bought a property in recent years. While the RBA lifted the cash rate and mortgage rates increased over much of 2022, property prices fell, even dramatically in some markets. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index recorded a slight rise of .6% across all capital cities in March and a rise of .5% in April-the first such rises in 11 months. Many property experts are already predicting the end of the property slump as prices remain above pre-pandemic levels.

The director of research at CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, noted at the release of the Home Value Index in May that net migration and a shortage of inventory likely contributed to the housing market’s recovery.

“Through the downturn, many prospective vendors have stayed on the sidelines, keeping inventory levels low and giving sellers some leverage at the negotiating table,” Lawless said.

It is believed by many buyers that the rate hike cycle is nearing its end.

It may be contributing to a general perception that the market has bottomed out, and that it’s a good time to buy, according to him.

It is likely that consumer sentiment will improve as interest rates stabilize, which will increase buying and selling activity in the housing market.”

Due to its high housing debt ratio, Australia was recently ranked as the second-highest country for “housing market risk” among 27 countries.

It is widely believed that the property market will crash in the near future. We spoke to two experts to find out their opinions.

A Covid-led Boom

Australian properties are still extremely expensive, despite the fact that they have become more affordable since the pandemic.

The Australian housing market reached its peak in April 2022, when it had risen by about 30%, says Eliza Owen, Head of Research, Australia at CoreLogic. Between late 2020 and early 2022, regional Australia experienced an upswing of about 40%, while capital cities experienced an upswing of about 25%.”

According to Owen, the boom was largely fuelled by emergency low interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic, which reduced borrowing costs, and by a strong recovery with high demand, low unemployment, and high levels of savings.

The housing market was also buoyed by some preference shifts that occurred during the pandemic, including increased demand for holiday houses, tree-changers moving to regional areas, expats returning, and people wanting more space or their own space after lockdowns.

So Will the Property Market Crash?

Australian capital cities’ housing markets fell by -5% in 2022, according to Domain figures. In Sydney, house values declined by -10.9%, and in Melbourne, they fell by -5.9%. In Canberra and Brisbane, they declined by -6% and -1.1%, respectively.

By the end of spring selling season, most of the damage had been done. Between early 2022 and November, Australian combined capital city property prices fell 6.5%, according to CoreLogic figures.

However, Owen does not consider this a crash.

In my mind, a housing market crash is defined by the loss in value and a loss in mortgage serviceability, when people can’t service their mortgages, and they have to sell, but they can’t get enough money to pay off the loan when they try to sell.” We’re not seeing that right now.

Although the property market was in a downturn over the latter half of 2022, Kilroy says a crash is unlikely due to strong economic fundamentals. The first is demand, with high rents and the return of overseas migration resulting in more buyers. On the supply side, low unemployment is limiting the number of properties for sale, with distressed sales not yet evident.

Check out this article for more information: How to beat the rate hikes

The Impact of Rate Rises

Last year’s property market downturn was largely caused by rising interest rates, according to Kilroy. There is a credit availability issue driving this downturn, rather than an increase in unemployment or oversupply.”

After raising interest rates ten consecutive meetings beginning in May of 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate to 3.6% in April before holding it steady.

According to Owen, this is the fastest rate increase since the early 1990s as a result of extremely high inflation levels. A major cause of this correction in housing values has been the rise in interest rates, so this has essentially reversed the upswing in housing prices.”

Is 2023 going to be a year of rate declines?

What Is in Store for the Property Market?

In Owen’s words, “prices will continue to fall as long as interest rates rise”. Her research indicates that the magnitude of the declines has moderated in recent months, with a national drop of 1.6% in August slowing to a fall of 1.2% in October. Over the past few months (of last year), there has been a slowdown in the pace of decline, and an orderly trend is beginning to emerge.”

Then, of course, there was the slight rise in CoreLogic’s dwelling values in March of .6% and .5% for April, indicating that we may have reached the bottom of the falls.

Owen says the best guide for the housing market outlook is the cost of debt, with property prices likely to increase once interest rates start to fall, something Kilroy is expecting in either the last quarter of 2023 or the first quarter of 2024.

However, Kilroy adds that since the boom was fuelled by the unique circumstances of a global pandemic, property prices aren’t expected to bounce back to their previous highs in the short term, as interest rates are unlikely to fall as far. She is forecasting any fall in interest rates to bottom out at around 2.6%.

How Far Will Prices Fall?

“We’re expecting a nationwide dwelling peak-to-trough price fall of 11.5%, and we’re expecting that trough to be met in the second half of (2023),” Kilroy says, adding that BIS Oxford Economics forecasts are “at the low end of the scale compared to some commentators”.

However, the same falls will not be experienced universally.

“We’re forecasting a 13% fall for houses and 8% for units, and we’re forecasting Sydney to have the greatest fall in house prices of around 18%, while we have Perth houses at the other end of the scale with a more modest 4% drop.”

While CoreLogic doesn’t make forecasts, Owen says that the Big Four banks are tipping combined capital cities prices to fall by a median of 16%. “Based on the forecasts, this could be one of the largest housing market downturns that we’ve observed, but this is coming off the back of one of the biggest upswings we’ve observed in Australia’s housing market as well.”

However, by late April, ANZ had updated its forecast, downgrading its prediction of a peak-to-trough fall from 16% to 10%. In May, the big four all released revisions of their earlier housing price predictions, reneging their previously pessimistic takes.

Domain economist Dr Nicola Powell said there were signs that the bottom had been reached, and the turnarounds of the banks could be a strong indicator.

“This could very well be the bottom of the market, but we need another couple of quarters of sideways movement of prices, or slight improvements, before that is confirmed,” she said.

Whether this is the bottom or the beginning of another boom is yet to be seen, and, alike to the economists, the banks are split: CBA predicts prices to rise 3% in 2023; NAB expects a slight fall in the year; ANZ and Westpac say the market will be mostly flat for the rest of the year.

Is Australian Housing at Risk?

Most recently, the IMF released a report, A Rocky Recovery, that ranked Australia second only to Canada in relation to housing risk. It did so after looking at five key metrics:

  1. Outstanding housing debt to household income in June last year. Australian housing debt is roughly 145.4%, of the country’s total disposable household income.
  2. The share of housing debt on variable interest rates. Around 70% of loans are variable in Australia.
  3. The share of home owners with a mortgage—around 37%.
  4. Cumulative cash rate changes from March 2020 to September 2022. The RBA has hiked rates 10 times since April last year.
  5. Real house price growth between March 2020 to March 2022, which in Australia amounted to a pandemic surge of about 25%.

Commenting on the IMF report, Owen said that while the ranking is sobering, there is reason for optimism.

“Many households have accrued strong savings buffers through the low interest rate period, and labour markets remain extremely tight,” Owen said.

“Housing market conditions are turning a corner amid low stock levels, rising demand from overseas migration, and consumer sentiment shifting higher as we approach what may be the end of the rate-tightening cycle.”

As the IMG said in its report: “In most cases, it is unlikely that an ongoing fall in house prices will lead to a financial crisis, but a sharp drop in house prices could adversely affect the economic outlook.”

July 13, 2023 by ash 0 Comments

Where are the top 20 hotspots for property investors?

The top 20 locations in Australia for property investors with a $100,000 deposit have been revealed, with seven suburbs in Newcastle included in the list.

Online research company Suburb Help has identified 20 locations in its $100k Investment Report. It includes nine suburbs in NSW, six in the ACT, two in South Australia, two in Victoria and one in Tasmania with a mix of both metro and regional locations.

To make sure locations were suitable for investors, suburbs were excluded if they had a:

  • Median price above $1m
  • Owner-occupier share of 65% or more than 90%
  • Renter share less than 10% or more than 35%
  • Vacancy rate more than 1.5%
  • Yield less than 3%
  • Median weekly rent that has increased by less than 5% over the previous 12 months

This process excluded the vast majority of suburbs in Australian, leaving just a small number of investor-grade suburbs. Suburb Help then whittled the suburbs down to a top 20 and ranked them based on median price (from lowest to highest).

“The cheapest median price is just $590,000, potentially making that suburb accessible for an investor with a deposit of $59,000,” said Suburb Help chief property strategist Veronica Morgan (pictured above left).

Morgan said it was not easy to buy a property right now for a couple of reasons.

“First, even though prices are declining in many parts of Australia, they’re still elevated following the recent boom,” she said. “Second, investors’ borrowing power is declining with every Reserve Bank rate hike, so it’s good to know that if you find a lender prepared to accept a 10% deposit, you can still buy into a good investment location for a relatively modest price, provided you do your research.”

Morgan said every location in the Suburb Help $100k Investment Report had been carefully selected.

“We wanted locations that were not only likely to record above-average capital growth over the long-term but would also provide a healthy cash return right now,” she said. “That’s why we limited ourselves to locations that had low vacancy rates and reasonable yields. As a result, if you buy a quality property in one of these locations, you should find it relatively easy to secure a reliable tenant prepared to pay a good rent.”

Brenden Lowbridge (pictured above right), director of Newcastle brokerage Money Links, said investors could enjoy the benefit of investing in a growing area close to Sydney.

“We have an affordable price point when compared to Sydney along with excellent lifestyle benefits, increasing rents and very tight rental vacancy which has provided the perfect storm for Newcastle and Lake Macquarie,” Lowbridge said. “Investors have also seen that capital growth in many cases over this last growth period has kept up with Sydney suburbs.”

Lowbridge said he had noticed an increase in investor clients wanting to purchase in Newcastle.

“I have noticed there are more experienced investors using the current negative market sentiment to their advantage,” he said. “We just assisted an investor purchase a unit in the beachside suburb Merewether for $650,000. There are many comparable sales from six months ago that are in the $720,000 range.”

Lowbridge said he forecasted this trend to continue.

“I believe when interest rates level out later this year, confidence will return and a larger wave of buyers will come into the market,” he said. “I also believe that a big reduction in construction starts due to build cost increases will put more pressure on existing rentals, meaning an increase in rental yields. Investors will be attracted to these improved yields and push into the market.

“Whilst people have transitioned to Newcastle from Sydney, due to limited employment opportunities I believe that this has been slow to begin with. As large national employers start to consider these areas as an option and employment opportunities present themselves, migration will really kick in which will push up local rents and prices.”

The Top 20 suburbs for property investors:

NSW real estate values resist interest rate increases

Interest rates’ limited impact is what prevents them from reducing real estate values, but for investors, Sydney and regional NSW may provide investment opportunities.

There should be more equitable distribution of pain among people with mortgages as opposed to the current interest rate strategy.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates this month.

A softening of inflation figures presented the opportunity, and the Governor cited the need for “time to assess the state of the economy, the economic outlook and associated risks” in maintaining the cash rate.

There is, however, a risk of more rate pain in coming months unless a definitive downward trend is evident.

Although the RBA promotes the notion that rates are its only weapon against inflation, other tools are available to it as well.

In addition, there should be a better alignment of monetary and fiscal policies, consideration of whether the pain of reaching 2 to 3 percent inflation outweighs the benefits, and whether the definition of inflation should be revised, excluding housing costs and profiteering from some companies, for example.

Property prices are less affected by interest rate hikes than if wider measures were taken to combat inflation, since around a quarter of transactions are made in cash, including those made by downsizers and the wealthy.

In spite of rising rates, property prices remain stable

Price increases are typically dampened by rising rates, and this has once again happened. While the price rebound has gathered momentum in recent months, the extent of house and unit price increases has been mild. Rate rises have contributed to this tempered rebound.

Who knows where prices would have been had rates not risen so sharply and consistently over the last year.

Demand remains incredibly strong. Tweaks to stamp duty exemptions for first home buyers in New South Wales have just come into effect to add further pressure to the demand side.

On the supply side, the NSW Government has made various announcements, including developer incentives to include affordable housing as part of their projects in exchange for a more efficient approval process and extra building heights. In response, many councils have predictably hit out at their planning powers potentially being diminished.

If and when work on new supply starts on the ground, there may be some attractive opportunities on offer for investors. But for now it’s just all talk.

The critical shortage of rental accommodation and influx of immigration continues to widen the gap between rental supply and demand. Data from the Rental Bonds Board paints an unambiguous picture of the supply constraints on the rental front.

Almost without exception, one bond held by the Rental Bonds Board equals one rental property.

In NSW, the total residential bonds held as of 30 June 2023 was 961,471. As of 30 April 2023, it was 961,946. Over the past five years we have seen a decline in the growth of rental properties and now it’s going backwards.

Take a moment to consider the implications of this reduction. Of the tens of thousands of people who have needed to find a rental property in the last three months in the state, including the many who have arrived from overseas, sadly a lot have been unsuccessful.

The actions of Government in consistently targeting landlords with new regulations and legislation as apparent solutions to the rental crisis are having an obvious detrimental impact on renters.

Slipping regional areas on investors’ radars

There’s an interesting trend playing out in the regions. Some markets that were the darlings of the pandemic have come back to earth a bit. It’s not entirely unexpected and nor is it cause for alarm, as prices now compared to pre-Covid are still significantly higher.

CoreLogic’s Tim Lawless said recently: “After regional population growth boomed through the worst of the pandemic, internal migration trends have normalised over the past year, resulting in less housing demand across regional markets.”

The fact overseas migration is typically focused on the capital cities is having an impact too. In regional New South Wales, the decline in housing values from the recent cyclical high is nearly 10 per cent, according to CoreLogic. 

For investors, who have been thin on the ground of late, it’s a trend that may be worth keeping an eye on, particularly in areas where easing prices correspond with new infrastructure investment. A return to growth may not be imminent in the short-term but nor is a major correction likely given the weight of demand and undersupply of homes.

Like CBD rental vacancy, regional vacancy remains extremely tight. REINSW figures for May 2023 put Sydney’s rental vacancy rate at 1.4 per cent while for the Hunter it’s 2.0 per cent and for the Illawarra 1.8 per cent.

A vacancy rate of 3 to 5 per cent is considered healthy, as it represents a balance of choice for renters and strong fundamentals for investors.

But both in Sydney and regionally, we’re still a long way from that balance.

Regional Australia’s top 5 cheapest and best places to invest in property

A BIG country town famous for its golden guitar, another dubbed the beef capital, and a holiday hotspot ranked the country’s least liveable city have been named in a list of cheapest places in Australia to buy property.

A new report by leading property analyst and Hotspotting director Terry Ryder suggests investors seeking affordable property with prospects in the next six months should look further afield than their own backyards.

The Hotspotting report names five regional ‘cheapies with prospects’ across the country that meet the criteria of having affordable buy-in prices, solid rental returns, potential for price growth and growing populations.

It comes as new figures show Australia faces a population boom fuelled by a rise in net overseas migration of up to 1.755 million by 2028.

Regional areas are predicted to grow at phenomenal speeds, particularly in Queensland as migrants form NSW and Victoria seek out more affordable living options.

Hotspotting director Terry Ryder said the report featured five regional locations where investors could readily find properties in the $200,000s or $300,000s, and which also had solid growth potential.

“They’re not that hard to find because regional Australia is full of locations with good growth prospects and solid properties in the $200,000, $300,000, and $400,000 price brackets,” Mr Ryder said.

“They are regional centres which share characteristics of low prices, solid rental returns, and the potential for price growth. In fact, many of these areas can match the best capital cities for capital growth over time.”

Hotspotting general manager Tim Graham said many regional areas had outperformed the big cities in the past three years.

“Affordable prices, higher yields and superior growth: it’s a win-win-win situation for investors,” Mr Graham said.

“Of course, not every regional centre in the nation is a future hotspot. A location needs to have more to offer than cheap real estate to be featured in this report — it must also have growth drivers likely to lead to capital growth over time.”

Dr Laura Crommelin, Senior Lecturer in City Planning at the School of Built Environment at the UNSW said some regions had experienced a significant influx of new residents in recent years motivated by cheaper, more spacious housing on offer.

“Some who are priced out of the city housing markets may be able to afford a more spacious, standalone dwelling in a regional area,” Dr Crommelin said.

“Those regional areas within striking distance of the city are increasingly popular with those who still might commute once or twice a week to the city for work, but spend most of their time living by the coast.”

Dr Crommelin said demand for affordable rental properties was also exceptionally high in some regions.

-AUSTRALIA’S TOP 5 CHEAPIES WITH PROSPECTS-

Rockhampton, Central Qld

  • Affordable housing
  • Revitalised CBD
  • Billions in renewable energy projects
  • $2.5 billion Shoalwater Bay Military Training Centre redevelopment
  • $1.1 billion Rockhampton Ring Road
  • $983 million River Fitzroy to Gladstone water pipeline
  • $495 million Lower Fitzroy River weir
  • $575 million master planned estate.

Mr Graham said Rockhampton’s affordable property market had been relatively unaffected by the pandemic.

“This resilience, plus the roll-out of several significant construction projects, are turning Rockhampton into a magnet for southern migrants, first homebuyers and investors,” he said.

“Demand for properties is high and vacancies are tight — below 1.5 per cent in most Rockhampton postcodes.”

Mr Graham said Rockhampton’s diverse economy was being boosted by the resources sector with construction of the Bravus (formerly Adani) coal mine well under way.

Tamworth, Regional NSW

  • Strong future as regional freight hub
  • High population growth
  • $210 million hospital upgrade
  • $1.3 billion Dungowan Dam project
  • $37 million University of New England Tamworth CBD campus

Mr Ryder said Tamworth continued to grow, with billion-dollar infrastructure projects rolling

out.

“With its intermodal freight hub, Tamworth Global Gateway Park is set to be one of the engine rooms of the New England economy,” Mr Ryder said.

“The city is also part of a significant emerging region for renewable energy developments, with projects worth more than $10b on the horizon, including a Tamworth Big Battery.”

Mr Ryder said Tamworth was also appealing for its affordability and rural lifestyle, and along with its space and established facilities.

“A wave of new residential developments is also now under way, or in the pipeline, throughout the LGA and in nearby areas,” he said. “The Tamworth property market is strong, with low vacancies and the consistent delivery of high rental yields continuing to attract investors. Units are also recording double-digit annual growth of 20 per cent and above.”

Mount Gambier, Limestone Coast, SA

  • Affordable housing
  • Low vacancies and rising rents
  • $120 million renewable energy plant
  • Forestry industry development hub
  • Timber plant expansions
  • Hotel upgrades

Mr Graham said Mount Gambier was rated one of the best regional centres in South Australia for property investment due to its affordable housing, lifestyle opportunities and employment growth.

“Forestry is also one of the key industries in the region with expansion plans in the pipeline for several of the region’s largest employers,” he said.

“The region has also become popular with interstate and intrastate residents moving to the Limestone Coast.”

With a median house price of $375,000 and yields above five per cent, Mount Gambier is a location worth considering by investors seeking affordability, notable cash flow and prospects for growth, plus rental availability is extremely tight, with vacancies staying below one per cent since 2020, he said.

Lockyer Valley, Regional Qld

Strategic location between Ipswich and Toowoomba, with good road links

Strong, diverse economy including manufacturing, agriculture, tourism,

resources, and government admin

  • $11 billion Inland Rail Project
  • $245 million water distribution plan
  • $180 million food processing plant
  • $110 million Equine Precinct
  • $100 million Lockyer Energy Project

The population in Queensland’s Lockyer Valley, halfway between Brisbane and Toowoomba, is expected to grow by more than 37 per cent by 2046, jumping from 41,000 now to 57,000, according to new population figures.

Mr Ryder said the region was rated among the top 10 most fertile farming areas in the world.

“The area is also home to light industry and a Queensland University campus, is at the gateway to the Surat Basin mining precinct and has a growing renewables sector,” he said.

Good road links and a scenic backdrop of the steep hills and mountains meant the area’s natural beauty and rural charm attracted visitors and residents from across the state and beyond, he said.

Geraldton, Regional WA

  • WA’s second largest port
  • Largest WA city north of Perth
  • Australia’s windsurfing capital
  • Major mining centre
  • High-speed train to Perth proposed
  • Commercial activity hub
  • Affordability and rising sales activity
  • Very low vacancies

The only city on Western Australia’s Coral Coast, and the largest north of Perth, Geraldton is a key regional centre that has grown swiftly in recent years, in line with growth in Perth and the State overall.

“With an increasing population and growing economy, there has been a notable increase in the LGA’s property market,” Mr Ryder said.

“Geraldton experienced a marked uplift in sales activity in this period that was partly due to budget prices when compared to Perth, with houses typically priced in the $300,000s.”

Earlier this year, Geraldton came last in a study by Avenue Perth of the most liveable cities in Australia, based on safety, average cost of living, number of banks and number of restaurants.